Ukraine is preparing to strike back against Russia. Timing will be key

Weather the storm, exhaust the enemy and then strike back. That has been the mantra of Ukraine’s military for months, one echoed by senior US and NATO officials since the winter.

So much for the idea. But can it be executed and if so where, when and with what? Even the Ukrainians themselves may not yet know as they study the 1,000-kilometer front line for Russian vulnerabilities, just as they did when suddenly launching the surprise September offensive in the northeast region of Kharkiv.

But they are aware it will be a crucial chapter in the conflict. Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, said in an interview last month that Russia and Ukraine will fight “a decisive battle this spring, and this battle will be the final one before this war ends.”

That suggests the Ukrainians may take their time to maximize capabilities. Predictions are a fool’s errand; there will be plenty of bluff and disinformation about intentions in the coming weeks. But preparations are well underway.

The essential preconditions for a Ukrainian counteroffensive include the completion of training and integration of new units, degrading the Russian rear, a resilient logistics chain and real-time intelligence.

The “intelligence picture will inform things like where there might be weaknesses in Russian defensive deployments, as well as locations of Russian HQ, logistics, and reserve force locations,” said Mick Ryan, formerly a general in the Australian army who was recently in Ukraine.

Ukraine is standing up several new corps, each of which would comprise several thousand troops. “Included in these will not only be new Western tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, wheeled vehicles and other equipment but also a lot of engineering equipment,” Ryan told CNN.

These units may be nearly ready. “Ukrainian sources have already telegraphed that they’re forming or have formed six to nine new brigades for counteroffensives,” said Kateryna Stepanenko at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington DC.

Ryan says such ambitious offensives consume large amounts of fuel, munitions, food, medical supplies and spare equipment. The logistics chain – which may be hampered by poor weather more than armor – is critically important.